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February 18, 2006

Women, Crime, Immigration

Michael Blowhard writes:

Dear Blowhards --

Brenda Walker argues that ill-managed immigration can destroy women's progress. She also links to an astounding piece about crime and immigration in Scandinavia by Fjordman. Some of the scary facts that Fjordman reports about Sweden alone:

The number of rape charges ... has tripled in just above twenty years. Rape cases involving children under the age of 15 are six times as common as they were a generation ago. It is four times more likely that a known rapist is born abroad, compared to persons born in Sweden. Resident aliens from Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia dominate the group of rape suspects. According to these statistics, almost half of all perpetrators are immigrants.

Nice job, Scandinavian immigration-policy-setters!



posted by Michael at February 18, 2006


The article gives a couple examples of local women being raped by immigrant men, but is otherwise light on the statistics when it comes to victims' nationalities. I strongly suspect that most of the rapes occur within the immigrant communities rather than crossing ethnic lines. Furthermore, it's likely that many of the men don't even consider their actions to constitute rape, because they are thinking in terms of what's acceptable in their home countries. All of this is even more true if the rapes include statutory rape as well as forcible rape.

Posted by: Peter on February 18, 2006 4:17 PM

That's just the thing about rape awareness (as a greatly underreported crime): as the situation gets better, it always seems to get worse. Maybe women have far less social pressure to conceal a rape when the perpetrator is part of an already stigmatized group.

Posted by: J. Goard on February 18, 2006 5:59 PM

On the other hand, there's the possibility that immigrants in the Scandinavian countries are doing a lot of raping ...

Posted by: Michael Blowhard on February 18, 2006 9:07 PM

Is there some site that has the raw numbers? Claims like "Rape cases involving children under the age of 15 are six times as common as a generation ago" make me suspicious. How long is "a generation", and what has happened to the population levels in that time? If the population were growing at, say, 7% a year, you'd expect any category of rape case to be about 6 times more common (5.73 times to be exact) after 25 years. Different estimates of population growth and different values for "generation" would produce other numbers, of course...

According to nationmaster, the rape rate in Tunisia is about a third that of the Scandinavian countries. Which in turn is a lot lower than ours, so maybe they're doing something right at controlling rape. Anecdotes notwithstanding.

My other hunch is that controlling for income might be revealing. If rapes tend to be committed by the poorest people in an area, and the poor people in some area happen to be largely immigrants, then the rapes will tend to have been committed largely by immigrants.

Posted by: Glen Raphael on February 19, 2006 2:43 AM

Glen, a few before-the-Sunday's coffee notes.

-as much as you'd like to see the source and method of coming up with "rape is 6 times more common" claim - I'd like to see the method of gathering data on that NationalMaster site you linked to. I have a very strong suspicion the amount of rapes reported to authorities in Tunisia is somewhat lesser than in Sweden. Try to tell 14yo girl who grew up in atmosphere of "honor killings" (where person killed is not the perpetrator, mind you, but the victim) to go and reveal her story to the world - and be possibly killed by her own father or brother.

- For a muslim man (that's who we're talking about here, right?), a woman wearing lipstick and knee-length skirt in public is a whore. I wouldn't be surprised if, raping her, he excuses himself as if doing the righteous thing. I've seen similar behaviour in Southern republics of former Soviet Union: you go to a resort in Caucasus, and all local men whistle at you (in the morning) and try to grab your ass (in the evening) - and get very angry if you protest. They don't do it to their local women: they consider them modest and honorable. Clash of mentalities, you like it or not.
maybe they're doing something right at controlling rape
Are you advocating Islamic society for the West, Glen? After all, there were no armed robberies, street murder and rape reported under Taliban.

- I would agree with your hypothesis about higher crime rate in immigrant communities due to poverty, if you show me the similar numbers for ALL immigrants. All immigrant groups - Korean, f.ex., Polish, Finnish, or Armenian as well as Moroccan, Pakistani and Congolese, are poor when entering a new country. If the crime stems only from poverty, the crime rates will be the same for all these groups. Please provide us with "raw numbers"

Posted by: Tat on February 19, 2006 10:49 AM

Ah, sorry for double-posting, I just couldn't not pass this.
Glen, here's another wonderful crime-reducing invention we should probably learn from admirable Islamic World.

Posted by: Tat on February 19, 2006 10:57 AM

I apologize for the ambiguity, but when I said "maybe they're doing something right", by they I meant Sweden. That is, Sweden's overall reported rape statistics (which are probably reliable) are much better than those of the U.S. . Which should make us wonder how bad this problem really is and give us pause when casting stones.

Here's another hypothesis: Maybe having a strong social network - lots of friends and family around with ties to the local community - deters rape. If so, you'd expect the rape rate of those from, say, Morocco to be high when there are just a few of them around but drastically decine over time with continued immigration and integration. Once there's a sufficiently large local Moroccan community, no problem. This would be an argument in favor of the old U.S. policy of giving preference to immigration of family members.

Posted by: Glen Raphael on February 19, 2006 2:51 PM

I like that crime-reducing invention! I'll bet it works surprisingly well - and would work just as well if the text were the Bible or the complete works of Shakespeare. It seems like an objectively measurable indication of intelligence, literacy, and persistence - all good indicators of potential success outside prison. More to the point, it gives the prisoners something quiet and non-threatening to do while in prison, which should make them less troublesome and reduce the cost of keeping them.

Posted by: Glen Raphael on February 19, 2006 3:06 PM

Glen, have you read much about what's happening in European countries due to increased immigration from Muslim nations? Afterall, if you've got social problems stemming from one group of immigrants, the best way to solve the problem is to radically increase the number of problem immigrants? Yeah, that makes sense. I've read there are quite a few Vietnamese immigrants in France and they're model citizens.

BTW I've read reports of similar problems with Muslim immigrants gangraping Australian women. There was one case where the lawyer actually tried to argue they should be excused because it's their culture. There was another case I remember reading about in France where several Muslim men were prosecuted for rape, and then mysteriously the courthouse was burnt down. Imagine that.

Posted by: lindenen on February 20, 2006 3:07 AM

Glen,first I thought you're joking, then read again why you approve of memorizing koran for reducing the sentence and now I'm not sure anymore. Please tell me you did!

What, you see no connection between the crime and punishment? Otherwise you wouldn't think mechanical memorizing (something parrot can do, with proper training) of a book can transform a rapist or a murderer into a functional citizen? Or you ascribe some redeeming magical qualities to the book itself?
In the article one of the criminals, sentenced to life in prison was released after 4 years of memorizing koran - what do you think his crime was, not paying a parking ticket? Would you feel better if your daughter will be raped by a guy capable of reciting the holy book rather than an ignoramus?

Posted by: Tatyana on February 20, 2006 12:22 PM

I'm serious that I like the memorising thing.

Many more people will try to memorize the Koran given this incentive than will succeed at it. All those people trying to memorize the Koran will be easier to handle than if they had no such incentive. (There's nothing less dangerous than a guy who is busily reading and re-reading a book at all hours of the day!) That means you can afford to keep more prisoners in prison for any given budget on guards. The few prisoners who suceed are let out early, but you can afford to safely keep other prisoners longer or convict more prisoners per unit time as a result of this policy. So even if there were no corellation whatsoever between ability to memorize the Koran and socially desirable characteristics this pro-reading policy would still, on average, make society safer.

But there is a corellation, and it's not because reading the book transforms the criminal - although for some it will - so much as that it reveals previously opaque information. The good part of what it reveals is that it's an advanced literacy test combined with a sticktuitiveness test - only people who can read well and can stay focused on a task for a long time pass. Sure, I'll grant there are negative uses for intelligence and literacy - dumb criminals are easier to catch than smart ones - but overall my suspicion is that the smarter criminals are the most likely to have "learned their lesson" and to be able to restructure their lives into something socially positive.

As for the guy who got 4 years instead of life, that's contrary to the guidelines given, so he was probably a special case. Maybe it was a parking ticket. :-) The guidelines say memorizing the entire Quran only gets 20 years off, so there must have been something else going on there.

Lastly, this a criteria that sounds objective but has lots of wiggle room for useful subjectivity. One could easily be stricter or harsher in testing the alleged memorization depending on the severity of the crime and the nastiness of the criminal. If it's used that way, it's really a disguised liberal reform - a way to let off deserving inmates whose sentences were overly harsh in a way that's politically acceptable to the religious fundamentalists.

Of course, it would work better if you couldn't do the work in advance - having memorized the koran when you were 9 or 10 isn't as impressive as memorizing it in prison later. Even still, it's an interesting policy.

I think we should try it here, but use the complete works of William Shakespeare.

Posted by: Glen Raphael on February 20, 2006 5:00 PM

Good grief Micheal, do you get paid by the number of comments your posts generate? You are either trolling or you are brain dead.

As J.Goard reported, people, in Scandinavia and other places, now report rapes/child abuse in greater numbers.

There is no cause and affect with immigration. If that were the case, Cuba would be relatively rape free while Toronto (a city that has 50% of it's population born in an other country) would be the rape capital of the world!

Even if immigrants were more likely to rape (they aren't), how would you propose a country cherry pick the ones that are less likely?

Application question 47:
Have you ever raped someone?
Application question 48:
Do you intend to rape once you are accepted into our country?

Please, if you know the secret to predicting rapes, let us know!

Posted by: Erik on February 21, 2006 2:30 AM

Erik -- You did notice that the reference in the posting wasn't to immigration generally, but to *ill-managed* immigration?

Posted by: Michael Blowhard on February 21, 2006 3:29 AM

"There is no cause and affect with immigration."

Is Erik's post for real?

Posted by: jult52 on February 21, 2006 9:27 AM

Erik is probably getting paid by the LACK of comments his posts generate at his own place: the less comments/more PC/less successful - the more weighty canadian dollars he gets.

Sunds like a typical French-speaking business to me.

Posted by: Tatyana on February 21, 2006 12:16 PM

Crime is strongly related to immigration, especially with violent crime. There was a new Swedish study by the government department which deals with crime showing that persons born abroad and their children have FAR higher rates of crime. And the study even controlled for socioeconomic status. It is available to read at and then go to the section for publications and look for the publications about crime in swedish people and those born abroad. It's all there in plain English with official data to back it up. Immigrants cause crime.

Posted by: benjamin wallis on February 25, 2006 9:45 AM

being a Swede I have the advantage of being able to read up on the subject. Last year we changed the law concerning rape and lowered the bar so that more sexual assaults could be labeled rape.

Hence the 32% rise in our statistics. So there isn't so much a dramatic rise in rapes as in more cases being concidered rapes that before.

In recent years more of the domestic crimes such as rape and wife beatings is being reported to the police. this is a cultural change yet to happen in many of the other countries we have mentioned.

Regarding the immigrant/crime discussion I would say that crime is born out of desperation and alienation. Many of the immigrants have experienced things most of us "westerners" never even could begin to understand. It's in this gap of understanding that many conflicts grow I think.

Just my 2 cents

Posted by: Kim Carlquist on February 28, 2006 5:58 PM

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