Here's what the debate over oil peaking is about
http://oildepletiondebate.blogspot.com/

the world uses 86 million barrels of oil everyday, or a 1000 barrels per second, or 30+ billion barrels per year. How many olympic sized swimming pools of oil would that fill in a year's time and how long would those pools stretch if layed end to end? 2,044,000 pools per year and at a lenght of 184 feet they'd stretch 63,488 miles long. But were going to replace that with Uncle Jesse's finest corn mass. The modern world demands a heck of a lot of oil to fuel its GDPs

Because gasoline is under $1 in OPEC countries their own consumption, along with China and India's, is growing and canabalizing their own export capacity. Mexico, behind Canada, is the US's second largest importer to the US. But their main field is rapidely declines to the point that within 5 years Mexico could end exports as their own interal consumption is growing.

At 86 million barrels per day the Wall Street Journal reported CERA estimates global decline rates are 4.5% per year. 4.5% is a loss of 4 million barrels per day. Iran produces 4 million barrels per day. So the world oil industry must bring to market a new Iran every year to keep production flat. CERA expects demand to be 112 million per day by 2017 (within 9 year). But to overcome the 4.5% decline and build capacity the oil industry would have to bring to market 9 new Saudi Arabias over the next 9 years.

And BTW at the bottom of the above blog you'll find videos and audios to both Simmons and Kunstler along with others

Posted by: Scott on May 17, 2008 11:24 AM